Our world in the near-future. (Approx 50 years +), Who will rule the world? China? Britain? India? USA? Rating Options

[Majestic]

I think a lot of topics - and a lot of hype around in the media and elsewhere are about emerging economic prospects, the rise of developing countries and such...

As Timeless_Zhi or whatever his name said in a post after a news article, about "China rising". I want to know how many people believe in the "rise of the sleeping dragon". A lot of Europeans even in the late 19th Century, certainly believed in a strong East... e.g. Kaiser Wilhelm, "Look at the accomplished rise of Japan; think of the possible national awakening of China; and then judge of the vast problems of the Pacific." I think China has basically begun its rise, now fulfilling what Napoleon once spoke of China. China is even making the US seen more like "zhi laohu" or "paper tiger" as Mao Zedong claimed the US was.

So the question of this thread, is who do you think will dominate the world? As in domination - i don't mean conquest obviously, I mean "influence" be the one "listened" to as the US and Soviet Union clearly did in post-WWII. Who will be the strongest economy? Who will possess the "best" army with the biggest budget that is non-scathing to a country's economy? Who will have the greatest innovation? Who will be the leader of our world?

At the moment, the throne of "first" in the world would obviously be the USA. It is still far superior to China, but I think that may change. However I also know China's growth is something less sustainable than many people believe. In fact I believe the Chinese economy is propogated, and is something that may experience a harsh crash in the future - a bubble perhaps. Or perhaps a decline of control by the CCP. Its not near now, but soon I think. The CNY I think may become either too inflated and somehow in the future play a role in China's problems...

Does anyone else have the view that the Middle East (if some of them became more "firmer" and "united") may play a very important role in the future, perhaps greater than China's. Please note the quick rate of growth of Islamic communities.

I also think that China's role in the world might be smaller than believed. A country needs "others" and i think China will rely a lot on others boosting others as well as itself in many ways perhaps propelling a stronger Europe?

[Stranger88]

“In 2007, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 8.1 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country’s seventh consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period.” (Source: EIA) Just in 7 years’ time, Russian economy has been considerably recovered to be stronger and stronger since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Especially, the Russians made mass profits from selling oil thank to the escalating price of oil in 2008, and you will never know exactly whether such crisis may outbreak at any point of time.

The fact that their economy is absolutely dependent on oil and natural gas export for progresses will it be a disadvantage or unbalance for economic development, won’t it? I doubt it, because such nations as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Brunei nearly just rely on their abundant oil resources to become rich nations. Although Russia stand at the 8th post for oil resources, they hold the largest natural gas in the world with 1,680 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is nearly twice the reserves in the next largest country, Iran. Besides, Russia along with the U.S., Canada, Norway and Denmark have part in the unpredictably colossal natural gas reserve below the ice-frozen North Pole.

In 2006 Russia was the world’s largest natural gas producer (23.2 Tcf), as well as the world’s largest exporter (6.6 Tcf). Russia exports significant amounts of natural gas to customers in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and simultaneously tries to serve the rising demand in countries of the EU, as well as Turkey, Japan, and other Asian countries. The biggest customer of Russia’s natural gas is Germany with the consumption of 1,378 bcf in 2007 only. And you know, the demand for natural gas in European and some Asian countries has risen dramatically year by year. Once the direct energy link of pipeline natural gas from Russia to Western Europe is finished in 2010, getting rid of unwelcome neighbor Ukraine’s pressure on their price increase, definitely the export of Russian natural gas will be increased much more.

My above information is just to prove the truth Russian economic growth rate will continue at favorable speed, thanking to their stable high increase of natural gas export. And actually Russia’s natural gas source is so important to many European nations yearly that no nation wants to displease the Russians when the winter begins each year. Russia attacked Georgia while the Beijing Olympic Games was taking place. Only the US and UK harshly criticized Russian military actions and other nations kept silent. The French and Germans tried to find a peaceful diplomacy without violence solution for this tense (Germany and France are among the leading natural gas consumers of Russia).

Russia has no strong or well-known airplane giant producer as the US and EU, but their MIG jet fighters are very famous and favored by many countries in the world. Russia’s weapons exports exceeded $8 billion in 2008. Missiles to Syria and Iran, warplanes to Venezuela and Myanmar, helicopters to Sudan and almost half of the $6 billion Russian arms sales last year went to Beijing. Arms sales in Russia have grown at a quick pace in recent years. China and India have been their leading customers, Russia recently also has struck big weapons deals with Venezuela, Algeria and Iran.

You said corruption makes bad influences on entrepreneurship and indirectly holds back economic development, didn’t you? Yes, I know Russia is standing on the world’s 127th post with the CPI score of only 2.7 comparing to the 11th, 16th and 18th posts with CPI scores of 8.6, 8.2 and 7.5 of UK, Germany and France respectively. And Russia’s economy has been badly affected by these negative factors. But, how do you say about long-lasting nationwide labor strikes in UK, France and Germany in recent years? Don’t say that these economies were absolutely invulnerable to huge economic losses caused by such large-scale strikes. Let me note some well-known strikes in these nations in the 2000s. The most surprising and special is almost those strikes have occurred in UK, lol: UK firefighter strike in 2002, French labor protests in 2006, UK postal strikes, German national rail strike and French strikes in 2007, British teachers’ strike, First-group bus strike and council workers’ strike all took place in UK in 2008 and the strike of UK postal workers at the start of summer this year. Prolonged strike launched by some sort of workers triggered a national widespread ones after that, causing remarkably huge losses in these nations. You can’t say the minus growth rate of UK in the two last quarters of 2008 and the first quarter in 2009 is not resulted by such national strikes. One more, how could you estimate the damage to France’s economy caused by youth protests throughout France during February, March and April in 2006? Hmm, it seems this is an unanswered question.

Back to the issue of space discovery and conquest, it is now too early to know who is the winner. Let’s wait till the year of 2014 to see which nation can launch the first manned flight onto Mars, it’s not belated to note that name then.

[Warren Buffett]

What about Switzerland? Two cantons of Switzerland still practices Landsgemeinde (the method of raising your hand to vote).

Switzerland is only half-democratic since the other half still relies on parliament. Parliament is simply an improved version of a republic.

[phrontistes]

I must say that USA will always be in the lead. We have been for centuries. China has shown its potential to rise in power in it's mafia ways, but I will always truly believe that America will never have another power suppress Americas dream. Freedom, to never to be controlled by another power, therefore, America would never have a superior or lay into submission.

Kennedy once quoted 'the cost of freedom has always been high, but the Americans have always been willing to pay that price.'

[Warren Buffett]

^ HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, MAFIA WAYS! YOUR IGNORANCE NEVER FAILS TO AMAZE ME!

[Majestic]

LMAo

Propoganda much?

America freedom?

Last I remember, Obama was enslaved by burdens of lobbying, political support (Southern states) etc... Is that freedom or enslavement?